With just days to go until Election Day 2024, we’re down to the wire, and the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is nail-bitingly close. Polls are showing these two neck and neck nationwide, with neither camp able to claim a solid lead. It’s the kind of race where one unexpected shift, one crucial battleground state, might decide the whole thing. And with Trump snagging some key wins in North Carolina this week, his supporters have every reason to feel hopeful.
The momentum for Trump in North Carolina is palpable. Against historical trends, more Republicans have come out to vote early than Democrats, which is almost unheard of in a state where early voting usually skews left. According to Karen Brinson Bell, the executive director of the North Carolina State Board of Elections, Republican voter turnout in early voting has surpassed Democratic turnout—a twist that’s throwing pundits and pollsters for a loop. Plus, unaffiliated voters, who often hold the swing in a close race, are showing up in higher numbers than usual, hinting at the critical role they’ll play come Election Day.
What does this all mean? For starters, it’s a big deal. North Carolina has been a battleground state for years, often tipping back and forth in the unpredictable swings of its metropolitan and rural areas. But if the trend we’re seeing here holds in other swing states—Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona—it could mark a major shift toward Trump. A sweep of early voters in Trump’s favor would go a long way toward securing his win.
Harris’s team is scrambling in response. Reports came out that her campaign had been pumping millions into North Carolina ads in the final days. But this week, in a surprising turn, they slashed over $2 million from that same ad budget in the state, redirecting resources elsewhere. This shift hints at possible concern from the Harris camp. Why suddenly back off in a state that’s critical for any Democratic path to victory? Could it be that internal polling or early voter turnout data is showing Harris trailing? Maybe they’ve realized they’re in deeper trouble than they thought.
Looking at the numbers on the ground, it’s clear why Democrats might be worried. Trump is leading Harris in Charlotte and the western parts of North Carolina by a hefty 12 points. He’s also up by 9 points along the coast—a notoriously tricky area to pin down. Central North Carolina is a wash, with both candidates tied at 45%. And in the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area, Harris holds a slight lead, with 55% to Trump’s 40%. It’s a patchwork of numbers, but overall, they paint a picture of a state tilting toward Trump, especially in rural and suburban strongholds.
For Democrats, this can’t be a comfortable reality, especially since Harris was expected to dominate Trump by now. They banked on voters’ memories being filled with Trump’s controversies and outbursts, assuming that would be enough to tip the scales. But the issues Americans are grappling with—high inflation, soaring gas prices, a messy economy, and chaotic border policies—don’t just go away with a new ad campaign. For many, the last four years of the Biden-Harris administration have been a tough road. And while the mainstream media is quick to spotlight Harris’s charisma, many Americans seem more focused on the economic toll they’ve felt directly in their own lives.
And let’s not forget just how much Harris’s approval ratings and speaking fumbles have hurt her. She’s struggled to connect with a broad swath of the electorate, and her infamous “word salads” and awkward attempts at humor have given her a reputation that’s hard to shake. For voters who are on the fence, these public slip-ups could be the tipping point, casting doubt on her readiness to lead.
According to the latest voter registration data, there are about 7.8 million registered voters in North Carolina. As of now, over 3.37 million ballots have already been cast through early voting and absentee ballots—that’s 43% of eligible voters having made their choice before Election Day. With a hefty portion of those ballots likely in Trump’s favor, the early numbers paint a promising picture for him in the Tar Heel State. His base is energized, and if that turnout continues, he has a real shot at carrying North Carolina—a win that could reverberate through other battleground states.
It’s worth considering that North Carolina, with its blend of urban, suburban, and rural voters, serves as a kind of microcosm of the nation. If Trump is pulling ahead here, there’s a good chance similar trends are playing out in other swing states. People are feeling the impact of the last four years in very tangible ways: prices at the grocery store are up, small businesses are struggling to recover from pandemic shutdowns, and American families are facing financial strain like never before. These aren’t just stats on a news ticker; these are real lives affected by policies and political decisions.
Ultimately, the stakes couldn’t be higher. This isn’t just about two candidates vying for power; it’s about two competing visions for America’s future. For Trump supporters, his promise to “Make America Great Again” isn’t just a slogan—it’s a promise to rebuild what they feel has been lost. For them, early voting surges signal a rallying cry, a way to say, “We’re not going to wait for Election Day to make our voices heard.”
The Democrats, on the other hand, are banking on turnout from urban strongholds and hoping that younger, more progressive voters can make up for what’s looking like a considerable enthusiasm gap. But this late-game scramble doesn’t bode well. If Harris can’t solidify her base and find a way to make inroads with independents and undecided voters, she could be facing an uphill battle that’s impossible to win.
So, here we are, on the edge of one of the most contentious elections in recent memory. It’s anyone’s guess what the final results will be, but one thing is certain: North Carolina is setting the stage for a showdown.